How the Gaza Conflict Reshaped Netanyahu’s Political Fate
In the turbulent landscape of Middle Eastern politics, few narratives are as compelling — or as controversial — as that of Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival amid the Gaza war of 2024-2025. Behind the headlines of bombs and ceasefires lies a story not just of conflict, but of a leader whose relentless drive to stay in power arguably reshaped the course of the war and Israel’s democracy.
The Missed Truce That Could Have Changed History
In April 2024, the world came dangerously close to witnessing an end to the devastating Gaza war. Backchannel negotiations, brokered by regional powerhouses Egypt and Qatar, laid the groundwork for a six-week ceasefire. Even Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signaling a rare diplomatic opportunity, urged American officials to "finish this" by pressing for peace and a two-state solution.
Yet, in a striking display of political calculation, Netanyahu halted the truce. According to insiders, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened the government’s stability if the ceasefire proceeded. The prime minister, despite the gruesome human toll — including the October 7 massacre that was Israel’s deadliest day since the Holocaust — chose political expediency over peace. This decision marked a turning point where national trauma was wielded as a shield to secure his political future rather than an impetus to end the conflict.
Political Chessboard: Sabotaging Peace for Power
Polling data by mid-2024 painted a grim picture for Netanyahu: Likud’s support was crumbling, a looming corruption trial threatened to end his career, and internal investigations were closing in. The Gaza war emerged as an unorthodox political lifeline, offering a context to rally nationalistic sentiments and unify a fractured coalition temporarily.
Every ceasefire attempt was methodically undermined. A July 2024 Rome summit promising a breakthrough collapsed after Netanyahu imposed last-minute and stringent demands, such as permanent Israeli control over the Gaza-Egypt border corridor — a non-starter for Hamas negotiators. These manipulations not only prolonged suffering but deepened political fractures.
By March 2025, Netanyahu’s coalition had renegotiated with far-right firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir, aligning wartime continuation with political survival. Ceasefires became fleeting, and military campaigns stalled in a loop of gains and withdrawals, capturing the bewilderment of Israeli commanders uncertain of what victory even meant.
The Dance of War and Politics: Hezbollah and Iran
Moments before what could have been a decisive strike on Hezbollah’s Beirut command by Israeli jets in late 2023, Netanyahu shelved the operation—aware that such military aggression risked fracturing his fragile coalition with Benny Gantz and destabilizing his hold on power. Interestingly, a case of mistaken identification of birds for Iranian drone operators also played a part in aborting the raid, underscoring how delicate the political calculations were.
Fast forward to June 2025, as domestic pressures mounted from ultra-Orthodox factions threatening to pull support over conscription reforms, Netanyahu executed a bold, high-risk military campaign against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure named Operation Rising Lion. This multi-front air and drone strike decimated crucial nuclear and missile sites, significantly delaying Iran’s program. But beyond military objectives, this move was a strategic political gambit to secure his government’s survival, pacify dissent within coalition ranks, and reaffirm Israel’s posture as militarily resolute under his leadership.
The Battle Over Truth: Information Control and Institutional Power
Beyond physical warfare, Netanyahu launched an aggressive information campaign to shape narratives domestically and internationally. Leaks to foreign media suggested that anti-war protests were Hamas propaganda, attempting to discredit dissent. Concurrently, top military officials were reportedly pressured to alter records showing Netanyahu as decisive during critical moments, reflecting a concerted effort to craft an image of unassailable leadership.
Institutionally, the prime minister embarked on a systematic weakening of democratic safeguards. The 2025 dismissal of Shin Bet’s director — who was probing Netanyahu’s circle — and attempts to remove the Attorney General spotlighted a deliberate purge of accountability mechanisms. Judicial reforms, previously resisted by massive public outcry, resurfaced under the guise of wartime necessity, further consolidating executive power.
The Humanitarian Cost and Diplomatic Isolation
The human toll of the war is staggering and heartbreaking. By mid-2025, more than 55,000 Palestinians, including over 10,000 children, had perished. Nearly 90% of Gaza’s population was displaced, facing famine, blocked aid, and rampant disease in overcrowded shelters. While international bodies — from the International Criminal Court to the United Nations — voiced condemnation and pursued legal actions, Israel found itself increasingly isolated diplomatically.
Saudi Arabia paused previously optimistic normalization discussions, and even the UAE’s silence signaled regional disappointment. Yet paradoxically, these mounting crises did not topple Netanyahu. Instead, they galvanized his base who saw him as Israel’s last line of defense against existential threats.
Expert Analysis: The Price of Political Survival
Netanyahu’s wartime conduct raises profound questions about the intersection of conflict and democracy. His actions highlight a political strategy that leverages war as a tool not to secure peace or security, but to entrench personal power. This dynamic poses risks for democratic institutions worldwide, where the erosion of checks and balances during crises can lead to authoritarian turnarounds.
From an American policy standpoint, the delicate dance between support for Israel’s security and promotion of human rights becomes more complicated when leadership appears willing to prolong conflict for political gain. The United States, historically Israel’s closest ally, faces the enduring challenge of balancing strategic partnerships with calls for accountability and peace promotion.
Looking Ahead: Survival Is Not Victory
As 2026 approaches, Netanyahu stands fortified politically, seemingly rebounding from trials and defections. Yet history shows that war-time resilience does not always translate to peacetime approval. Like Winston Churchill, who won Britain’s war but lost the post-war election, Netanyahu’s continued grip on power may be more precarious than polls suggest. Peace, when it arrives, will open new chapters — and new choices — for Israeli society and its leadership.
Editor’s Note
This detailed account of Netanyahu’s wartime political strategy underscores a complex truth: war often serves as a crucible for power struggles that shape not only national security but democratic governance itself. Readers should consider what price is too high when political survival intertwines with decisions affecting millions of lives. As global citizens, understanding these dynamics offers critical insight into current events and the pursuit of lasting peace.
