Tracing the Roots of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
Iran’s nuclear programme began taking shape in the late 1950s under the regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who partnered with the United States for civilian nuclear cooperation. By 1970, Iran committed to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), pledging transparency and adherence to international scrutiny through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Concerns Stir as Undeclared Nuclear Activities Surface
Despite early commitments, the early 2000s brought to light undisclosed nuclear sites, raising alarms globally. A 2011 IAEA report indicated credible intelligence that until 2003, Iran engaged in activities linked to nuclear weapons development, though Tehran has persistently denied these allegations.
Historic Deal and Subsequent Collapse
Following years of negotiation, Iran and major world powers including the UN Security Council’s permanent members and Germany forged the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. This landmark agreement significantly curtailed Iran’s nuclear program in return for relief from crippling international sanctions.
However, the deal unraveled in 2018 when the United States, under President Donald Trump’s administration, unilaterally withdrew and reimposed sanctions. This move triggered a swift Iranian response, dramatically accelerating its nuclear activities.
Rapid Nuclear Escalation Post-2018
Experts describe Iran’s reaction as a sharp escalation, akin to a “red cape waved in front of a bull.” Enrichment levels soared from the agreed cap of 3.67% to 60% uranium purity, edging dangerously close to weapons-grade status. Additionally, Iran’s uranium stockpile has ballooned to more than 45 times the JCPOA limit, while advanced centrifuges enhance enrichment speed and volume.
Efforts to revive the JCPOA have stalled since mid-2022, despite renewed negotiations involving U.S. mediators and regional actors like Oman in 2024.
Recent Military Strikes and Rising Tensions
The geopolitical landscape grew even tenser following coordinated attacks on Iranian nuclear sites—initially by Israel and, shortly after, by U.S. forces targeting three locations. Tehran condemned these strikes as illegal acts supporting Israel’s agenda, warning they dealt severe blows to diplomatic efforts.
What Does the IAEA Say?
The IAEA’s latest report expressed grave concerns about Iran’s nuclear progress, underscoring that Iran is the only non-nuclear weapons state enriching uranium to 60%. The near-weapons-grade material stockpile could theoretically fuel more than nine nuclear devices if further processed. Still, crucial hurdles remain, as producing and deploying a functional nuclear weapon demands sophisticated ballistic delivery systems and warhead miniaturisation.
Importantly, the IAEA confirmed it currently finds no clear evidence of a coordinated Iranian effort to build nuclear arms. Similarly, U.S. intelligence officials have stated Iran is not actively manufacturing a nuclear bomb.
Iran’s Official Position and Religious Edict
Throughout all accusations, Tehran maintains its nuclear program is strictly peaceful. It often cites a religious decree from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prohibiting the production and use of atomic weapons, framing Iran’s stance as shaped by deep-rooted ethical and legal principles.
Looking Ahead
With sustained diplomatic deadlock, escalating regional tensions, and Iran’s expanding nuclear infrastructure, the international community faces a complex challenge. Balancing pressure and engagement remains critical to preventing further destabilization and avoiding the prospect of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.
