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India Likely to Avoid Trade Ban on Turkey Despite Security Concerns

India is curbing Turkish participation in critical infrastructure citing security concerns but is unlikely to impose a full trade ban. Despite calls from apple growers and marble processors, the government weighs the $2.73 billion trade surplus with Turkey and potential impacts on Indian exporters. Geopolitical ties between Turkey and Pakistan add complexity to the situation.

India Likely to Avoid Trade Ban on Turkey Despite Security Concerns

India Restricts Turkish Infrastructure Involvement but Keeps Trade Open

India is tightening controls on Turkish participation in critical infrastructure projects citing national security, yet is steering clear of a comprehensive trade ban. Despite pressures from various industry players, the government is hesitant to impose sweeping trade restrictions due to the $2.73 billion trade surplus India holds in its favor.

Why India Is Cautious About a Full Trade Ban

Several industry groups have advocated for banning imports from Turkey, including demands from Himachal Pradesh's apple growers who argue that cheap Turkish apples harm domestic producers. Marble processors in Udaipur have also requested import curbs on Turkish marble.

However, officials emphasize that India's strong export position complicates the prospect of a full trade ban. The country primarily exports industrial goods such as engineering products, electronics, and chemicals to Turkey — sectors that have seen consistent growth over the past five years. On the other hand, Turkey’s exports to India mainly include fruits, nuts, gold, and marble.

One government official explained, "While a trade ban would send a strong geopolitical message, we have to weigh it against the interests of our exporters and the economic implications."

Trade Dynamics Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The backdrop to this cautious approach includes Turkey's support for Pakistan following India's recent military operation targeting terror hubs in Pakistan and Pakistani-occupied Kashmir. Turkey’s reaffirmed alliance with Pakistan strengthens geopolitical ties that influence trade and diplomatic decisions.

Notably, Turkey boosted its imports of petroleum products from India after the Ukraine conflict started, although this sector has seen a sharp dip in the current fiscal year.

Local Industry Concerns

  • Apple Growers: Farmers in Himachal Pradesh argue that cheaper subsidized Turkish apples undermine local cultivation, threatening their livelihood and the regional economy.
  • Marble Industry: Marble processors from Udaipur have petitioned for restrictions on Turkish marble imports, fearing unfair competition.

Turkey-Pakistan Alliance Reinforced

Earlier this month, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Istanbul, highlighting plans to deepen cooperation in defence, energy, and transport sectors. Erdogan reiterated Turkey's close cultural and historical ties with Pakistan while showing solidarity in the wake of India’s recent security operations.

Looking Ahead

As India balances national security against economic interests, the government appears poised to restrict Turkish involvement within sensitive infrastructure, without jeopardizing the broader trade relationship that benefits Indian exporters. This nuanced stance reflects Delhi’s careful navigation of complex geopolitical realities and domestic economic pressures.

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