Why Israel Launched Operation Rising Lion Against Iran
On June 13, Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion, targeting military sites, key figures, and infrastructure tied to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions. In a comprehensive letter to the United Nations Security Council, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar detailed the reasons behind the offensive, describing Iran’s programs as an “existential and imminent threat” to Israel’s very survival.
Imminent Nuclear and Missile Threats
Sa’ar’s letter, dated June 17, emphasized that Iran is rapidly enriching uranium and accelerating its pursuit of nuclear weapons, along with plans to manufacture up to 10,000 ballistic missiles within the next three years. The letter also highlighted Iran’s history of launching missile attacks on Israeli population centers in April and October 2024, and even in recent days.
Sa’ar underscored that recent rhetoric from Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who called Israel a “cancerous tumor that must be eradicated,” only deepened Israeli concerns. The foreign minister condemned Iran’s nuclear agenda as a clear attempt “to achieve nuclear weapons aimed against the State of Israel.”
Proxy Networks and Regional Aggression
The letter also accused the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) of orchestrating attacks and supporting proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis to encircle Israel with what it calls a “ring of fire,” aiming at Israel’s annihilation through direct and proxy warfare.
The Intelligence Behind the Strikes
Behind these military moves lies intelligence reportedly shared with the United States and other allies, which suggests Iran had reached a “point of no return” in its nuclear weapon development efforts. The intelligence outlines:
- A renewed push by Iranian scientists towards weaponization, the final step in developing a nuclear explosive device.
- Connections to Iran’s earlier clandestine nuclear program, AMAD, which was officially halted in 2003 but arguably continued under civilian research projects.
According to assessments, a secretive group—dubbed the “Special Progress Group”—formed around six years ago under Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the former AMAD program head who was assassinated in late 2020. This unit allegedly prepared Iran to rapidly advance its nuclear weapons capability once the regime decided to pursue it.
Recent Developments Fueling Urgency
Intelligence indicates that the Special Progress Group intensified its activities at the end of 2024, coinciding with several pressures faced by Iran, including limited success of missile strikes on Israel and weakened air defenses due to Israeli retaliation. Additionally, the difficulties faced by Iran’s proxy forces in Gaza and Lebanon appear to have motivated an accelerated nuclear weapons push.
Last Resort to Defend Sovereignty
Israel has portrayed Operation Rising Lion as a final measure after diplomacy failed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Sa’ar stressed that the offensive was launched “to defend the security and very existence of the Jewish homeland,” emphasizing the immediacy of the threat and the narrow window left to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms.
What Lies Ahead?
The unfolding crisis underscores the deep-rooted tensions in the Middle East involving nuclear proliferation, proxy conflicts, and the balance of power. How the international community will respond to these developments remains a critical question as the situation continues to evolve.
