Putin's Alleged Plan to Influence Moldova's Government
Moldova's Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, has issued a stern warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to install a puppet government in Moldova with the purpose of strengthening Russia’s hold over the breakaway region of Transnistria. This move is seen as an attempt to undermine Moldovan democracy and expand Russian military presence.
Geopolitical Context and Transnistria’s Status
Moldova, bordered by Ukraine to the north, east, and south, and Romania to the west, faces complex geopolitical tensions. Since 1990, the Transnistria region has functioned as a breakaway territory with Russian backing. In 1992, a brief conflict resulted in the separatists maintaining de facto independence with Russia’s support, and Russian troops have been stationed there ever since.
Concerns Ahead of Moldova’s September Elections
Prime Minister Recean expressed concerns that ahead of the upcoming elections in September, there is active interference aimed at shifting the government from a pro-European Union (EU) stance to a pro-Russian orientation. According to Recean, should such a puppet government come to power, it could lead to the deployment of around 10,000 Russian soldiers in Transnistria.
Implications of Increased Russian Military Presence
Recen emphasised the strategic threat posed by the large military presence near Moldova’s borders. With a significant Russian force in Transnistria, there would be considerable pressure on southwestern Ukraine and neighboring Romania, a NATO member. He described this as "a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy" by consolidating military dominance in the region.
Historical Russian Influence in Moldova
This concern follows a history of Russian interference in Moldovan politics, including propaganda campaigns, vote manipulation, and cyberattacks noted last year. Despite this, Moldova’s electorate narrowly voted for a pro-EU government and president, Maia Sandu, propelling Moldova towards formal EU membership—a process expected to finalize between 2028 and 2029.
Moldova’s Vulnerability and Strategic Importance
Experts have long highlighted Moldova’s precarious position as a former Soviet republic outside NATO and EU, lacking external security guarantees. Its small, under-equipped military forces have limited capacity to resist aggression, making Moldova a potential soft target. The proximity of Transnistria to key regional players elevates the strategic stakes.
Summary of Key Points:
- Putin reportedly aims to install a pro-Russian government in Moldova.
- Deployment of up to 10,000 Russian troops in Transnistria is a significant threat.
- Moldova’s upcoming elections are critical to its geopolitical orientation.
- Russian interference in Moldova includes propaganda and cyber activities.
- Moldova is a vulnerable former Soviet state with limited defense capabilities.