Potential Trump-Xi Meeting Hinges on Apec Summit in South Korea
The highly anticipated meeting between former US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is poised to unfold either in Shanghai beforehand or during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit slated for October 30 to November 1 in Gyeongju, South Korea. This gathering carries substantial weight, offering a rare opportunity for both leaders to recalibrate a notably strained relationship.
Diplomatic Momentum Builds Ahead of Summit
This July, the corridors of diplomacy saw key engagement when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met face-to-face — a pivotal step symbolizing mutual willingness to revive high-level dialogue. Moreover, Xi Jinping extended a personal invitation to Trump and his wife to visit China, an offer Trump reciprocated, signaling goodwill gestures amid tense bilateral relations.
Context: Fragile US-China Relations and Trade Tensions
Since Trump’s return to the White House in January, US-China relations have remained complex. Early provocations, including Trump’s threat of imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, underscored a protectionist stance. Yet more recent months reflect attempts at stabilization, including agreements easing China’s rare-earth export restrictions and US tech trade barriers.
Where and When: Shanghai or the Sidelines of Apec?
- Shanghai Visit: Analysts suggest that a pre-Apec meeting in Shanghai would distinguish itself from Trump’s 2017 state visit to Beijing, possibly leveraging the city’s status as China’s financial hub to frame discussions.
- Apec Summit in Gyeongju: With Xi’s confirmed attendance and Trump’s participation still unconfirmed, the Apec summit represents a critical juncture where stakeholders expect high-level bilateral interactions.
Expert Insights: The Stakes Are High
Diao Daming of Renmin University emphasizes the value of direct dialogue, stating, "Under favorable conditions and an appropriate atmosphere, any form of interaction between the two leaders will aid in stabilizing and developing US-China relations." Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund highlights China’s view of the summit as a stabilizing force, potentially enabling Xi to lobby for eased technology restrictions and secure firm US commitments opposing Taiwan independence.
Given Beijing’s sensitive stance on Taiwan — which it regards as a breakaway province to be reunified by force if necessary — and Washington’s commitments to Taiwan’s defense, such meetings carry profound geopolitical significance. The summit might also provide a platform to tackle thorny bilateral disputes such as fentanyl trafficking and tariffs, which have stalled cooperation for years.
Challenges Ahead: Protocols, Politics, and Potential Pitfalls
While Trump has shown strong eagerness to engage, experts like Jeremy Chan of Eurasia Group point out the contrasting diplomatic cultures. "China is highly protocol-driven and prefers all agreements settled well in advance, while Trump is more spontaneous, willing to hash things out informally," Chan observes.
However, sustained progress depends on avoiding missteps. "One slip-up along the way — be it a hawkish US action or sensitive statement on Taiwan — could derail the entire summit," Chan cautions. Transparency and carefully calibrated messaging will be critical to maintaining momentum.
What This Meeting Could Mean for US-China Relations
- Trade and Export Controls: Potential breakthroughs could ease remaining tensions and strengthen cooperation on technology exports.
- Geopolitical Stability: Clearer communication channels may reduce risks of miscalculations, especially over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
- Global Economic Impact: Stable US-China ties contribute significantly to global market confidence, influencing everything from supply chains to investment flows.
Editor’s Note: Navigating Complexity Amid Fragile Diplomacy
The prospect of a Trump-Xi summit embodies the high-stakes nature of US-China relations today—a mix of cautious hope and underlying tension. As two powerful nations wrestle with trade disputes, technological battles, and regional security concerns, this meeting could either signal a new chapter of cooperation or underscore deep divides yet to be bridged. Readers should watch closely for developments around the Apec summit, considering how actions on both sides might redefine the trajectory of one of the world's most consequential partnerships.
