IPO Market Outpaces S&P 500 Rally Since April 2025
The Renaissance Capital IPO ETF has soared by an impressive nearly 50% since the stock market hit its low point on April 8, 2025, significantly outpacing the broader S&P 500 index. This resurgence is largely fueled by the renewed investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency companies, signaling a robust, albeit more measured, revival of the IPO market.
From Post-Pandemic Spike to a Sustainable Growth Phase
Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, offers a grounded perspective on this IPO wave. Unlike the frenzy seen during the Covid-19 pandemic years of 2020 and 2021—when an influx of pre-profit startups and SPACs flooded the market in what he describes as “crazy levels” of activity—Kennedy envisions a steady normalization. He compares today’s IPO comeback with the post-2008 financial crisis period, especially the 2014-2019 timeframe, marked by a gradual but consistent pickup in offerings.
"After the deep freeze in IPO activity over the past few years, this rebound feels like a breath of fresh air, but we're not headed back to an unsustainable boom," Kennedy told CNBC’s ETF Edge. This suggests growing market maturity and cautious optimism among investors and issuers alike.
AI and Crypto: The Leading Force Behind IPO Gains
Investor enthusiasm is particularly pronounced in sectors where innovation and hype collide—namely AI and cryptocurrency. Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, highlighted the momentum behind high-profile IPOs such as CoreWeave and Circle, both of which have delivered substantial returns since their public debuts.
- CoreWeave: This AI-focused cloud computing company posted stellar gains of more than 250% since its IPO peak, reflecting strong investor appetite for AI infrastructure plays.
- Circle: Known for its USDC stablecoin, Circle surged by approximately 50% before some pullbacks, yet remains a standout example of crypto’s influence on the IPO revival.
The broader crypto ETF market has also enjoyed a banner year, with inflows totaling $26 billion, including $19 billion in Bitcoin ETFs and $7 billion in Ether ETFs, as reported by Geraci. July alone contributed a staggering $11.5 billion in new investments to these funds.
Upcoming IPO Contenders Signal Continued Momentum
Momentum is unlikely to wane soon. Kennedy pointed out several notable names preparing to enter the public markets:
- Klarna: The fintech giant in "buy now, pay later" services plans a much-anticipated IPO this fall after several delays.
- StubHub: The ticketing platform is looking to test the IPO waters, marking a return of consumer-oriented tech listings.
- Several crypto firms: With proprietary valuation optimism, companies like Grayscale, Gemini, Kraken, and Ripple are rumored or confirmed to be eyeing IPOs soon.
Additionally, AI companies beyond household names are integrating smart technologies into their business models—ranging from design firms to medical technology companies—which could provide a wave of new offerings that blend innovation with practical applications.
Looking Ahead: Is an OpenAI IPO on the Horizon?
While investors are eager for headline-grabbing tech IPOs such as OpenAI, Kennedy tempers expectations, forecasting a public offering possibly in the 2028-2029 window. This timeline reflects the complexities of bringing cutting-edge AI companies to market, balancing hype with regulatory and operational realities.
Expert Insight: A Balanced IPO Future
The revival of IPO activity is an encouraging reflection of a market adapting to new technological frontiers without the reckless exuberance of previous cycles. Investors, companies, and regulators appear to be converging on a new paradigm—one that fosters innovation while tempering risks inherent to high-growth sectors like AI and crypto.
Such a measured approach could mean more sustainable returns and greater confidence in public markets, making now an opportune time for investors to pay close attention to emerging IPOs and evolving market dynamics.
Editor's Note
As the IPO landscape evolves through 2025 and beyond, discerning investors must navigate a complex convergence of technological innovation, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. The resurgent interest in AI and cryptocurrency IPOs offers promising opportunities, but also underscores the need for critical evaluation and long-term perspective. Will the market maintain its newfound balance or tilt back toward speculative excess? Only time will tell, but the current trajectory suggests a healthier, more resilient IPO ecosystem on the horizon.
Stay informed, stay curious.
